Projects often fail —not due to faulty technologies, but because individuals often lack the necessary tools to effectively identify the issues which result in project failure. Genius® Analyzer enables the User to develop a complete Business Case with an effective Total Risk of Opportunity™ (TRO™) assessment.In addition to having the ability to forecast the uncertainty of the economic benefits of an initiative, and performing a risk-of-not-investing analysis, the User can perform a Monte Carlo simulation for any or all of the assumptions, benefits and costs included in the business case. Genius Analyzer boasts all the features and functionalities of Genius Prowhile allowing the User to perform an additional detailed risk analysis.A Genius AnalyzerUser can quickly generate a comprehensive business case and generate a risk analysis report in Microsoft Word or PowerPoint. The user can also import the results to Microsoft Excel.
As shown on the graph below, the report includes a Sensitivity Analysis, whichidentifies those assumptions with the greatest impact on the outcome of the Business Case.By varying certain assumptions(from worst, most likely, and best case scenarios),and holding all other assumptions constant, the User can easily see the ramifications of each assumption.Glomark-Governan’s Genius Analyzercan then identify the most critical assumptions in the Business Case.This feature enables companies to track the benefits of a Business Case during, and after, the project implementation process.Genius Analyzeralso identifies which assumptions and benefits have the highest probability of negatively and positively impacting their company’s bottom line.
Features · Designed to create comprehensive Business Cases with a Total Risk of Opportunity (TRO) analysis · Users can employ any financial measure (e.g., NPV, IRR, Payback, Cash Flow) to run the analysis of the Monte Carlo simulation
· Distribution graphs can be set to +-1 sigma, +-2 sigma, or +-3 sigma
· Users can create and customize a complete Business Case, including any formula or projection
· All the features and functionalities of Genius Pro exist in Genius Analyzer
Benefits · Less time spent creating Business Cases
· Risk analyses assist in isolating potential elements that may lead to overall project failure
· Users can identify important issues to track within a project to minimize the chances of project failure
· Consultants and experts can utilize this tool to develop and present comprehensive, customized Business Cases
How did Monte Carlo simulation got its name? The Monte Carlo simulation was named for Monte Carlo, Monaco, where the primary attractions are casinos containing games of chance. Games of chance such as roulette wheels, dice, and slot machines, exhibit random behavior. The random behavior in games of chance is similar to how Monte Carlo simulation selects variable values at random to simulate a model. When you roll a die, you know that either a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 will come up, but you don't know which for any particular roll. It's the same with the variables that have a known range of values but an uncertain value for any particular time or event (e.g. interest rates, staffing needs, stock prices, inventory, and phone calls per minute). What to do with uncertain variables? For each uncertain variable (one that has a range of possible values), you define the possible values with a probability distribution. The type of distribution you select is based on the conditions surrounding that variable. Distribution types include Normal and Lognormal.
To add this sort of function to an Excel spreadsheet, you would need to know the equation that represents this distribution. With the Genius Analyzer of Glomark-Governan, these equations are automatically calculated for you. Genius Analyzer can even fit a distribution to any data that you might have, and used in the benefits and costs of your business case.
What happens during a simulation? A simulation calculates multiple scenarios of a model by repeatedly sampling values from the probability distributions for the uncertain variables and using those values for the cell. Genius Analyzer simulations can consist of as many trials (or scenarios) as you want - hundreds or even thousands - in just a few seconds. During a single trial, Genius Analyzer randomly selects a value from the defined possibilities (the range and shape of the distribution curve) for each uncertain variable (assumptions) and then recalculates the spread.